China'S Power Battery Market Size To Expand Again, Up To 78.2 Billion In 2020
In recent years, with the enhancement of people's awareness of energy saving and environmental protection, and the increase of policy support, representing the future direction of automotive development of new energy vehicles, is gradually becoming the "new favorite" of consumers. The rapid development of new energy vehicles has also led to the vigorous development of power batteries. The industry revealed that the scale of power battery system reached 50.66 billion yuan in 2015, and is expected to reach 78.2 billion yuan in 2020.
Under the influence of multiple factors such as subsidies, number restrictions and environmental pressure, the electric vehicle industry has been on fire in recent years. According to the CCA, from January to July this year, China produced 215,000 new energy vehicles and sold 207,000 units, an increase of 119.8% and 122.8% respectively over the same period last year. Power battery is the core component of electric vehicles, and the rapid development of new energy vehicles has also led to the booming development of power batteries.
Statistics show that power battery shipments climbed from 3.7 GWh in 2014 to 15.7 GWh in 2015, and shipments continued to maintain strong growth in the first half of this year, with 6.67 GWh of power battery shipments from January to June, accounting for 42.5% of last year's total, compared with 2.72 GWh in the first half of last year, an increase of 1.45 times year-on-year.
According to the first half of the power battery manufacturers shipments data, the current ranking of the top manufacturers mainly include BYD, Ningde Time, Guoxuan High-tech, Shenzhen Wotema, Wanxiang, Lixin, Dongguan Chongming, Beijing State Energy, AVIC Lithium, Zhuhai Yinlong, etc. 10 manufacturers power battery shipments amounted to 5.37GWh, accounting for up to 80.5%; which ranks the top three BYD, Ningde Time, Guoxuan High-tech, three manufacturers power battery shipments amounted to 6.67GWh, accounting for 42.5% of last year. Three manufacturers power battery shipments amounted to 3.72Gwh, occupying 55.8% of the market share.
In the first half of the year, the net profit of 23 lithium battery concept companies increased by more than 50%. Among them, DangSheng Technology, DouFuDuo, TianQi lithium net profit pre-increase of more than 10 times; TianGi material, GanFeng lithium, BYD, Oak shares, JiangTe motor, new Zuobang and other 12 companies increased between 1-5 times; pilot intelligence, NanDu power, ChengFei integrated and other 8 companies are expected to increase by more than 50%.
According to a number of lithium battery concept companies disclosed in the report: when the first half of science and technology to achieve revenue of 553 million yuan, an increase of 62.14%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 36.526 million yuan, an increase of 3715.77%. Aoke turned around to profit in the first half of the year, achieving total operating revenue of 1.783 billion yuan, up 33.75% year-on-year; net profit of 31.9851 million yuan, up 228.56% year-on-year. Duofuoduo's operating income in the first half of the year was 1.279 billion yuan, up 29.02% year-on-year; net profit was 250 million yuan, up 2532.78% year-on-year.
"Due to the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the power battery system has a short-lived oversupply situation. the scale of power battery system reached 50.66 billion yuan in 2015 and is expected to reach 78.2 billion yuan in 2020." An industry insider revealed.
Since 2015, domestic power battery enterprises have expanded production significantly, from the current trend, the end of this year, the power lithium battery capacity will exceed 100GWh. it is understood that in 2015, the domestic demand for battery-grade lithium carbonate in about 30,000 tons, of which lithium carbonate for power batteries reached 12,000 tons, an increase of 300%.
As we all know, the price has been one of the factors hindering the development of new energy vehicles, and has been the subject of close attention, the reason is the high cost of power batteries, so the price of batteries is the inevitable trend of the future. According to the U.S. Department of Energy survey data, the average cost of power batteries has dropped from $1000/KWh in 2008 to $268/KWh in 2015, a 73% decline in seven years. And the U.S. Department of Energy said its goal is to bring the cost of power batteries down to $125/KWh by 2022, which means the cost will drop another 58% in the next seven years.
When the cost of power batteries falls, the price of new energy vehicles will no longer deter consumers. Meanwhile, with the improvement of various aspects of the industry, such as the breakthrough of the range of new energy vehicles and the improvement of charging facilities, in the future, even if there are no more government subsidies, new energy vehicles are fully capable of competing with traditional fuel vehicles.
In view of the major favorable factors, BOCI Securities senior analyst Wang Qiuming believes that the demand for lithium carbonate for power batteries is conservatively estimated to reach 17,000 tons in 2016, and the demand for battery-grade lithium carbonate is around 37,000 tons. "Against the background of both international and domestic capacity expansion not meeting expectations, continued growth in downstream demand will maintain the tightening supply and demand situation for lithium carbonate, continuing to benefit domestic upstream lithium resource companies."
Zhang Guoqing, professor of Guangdong University of Technology, also said that the power lithium battery market capacity is expected to reach $57.5 billion by 2020, with an annual growth rate of more than 20%. In short, the active capital market and the expansion of power battery manufacturers' production bases are following the changes in market demand to provide strong support to meet the target of 2 million new energy vehicles in 2020.